Saturday, January 31, 2009

Using Tech Eyes To Spot Terrorists

This article first appeared in the January 2009 issue of it magazine. This is part of the Folk Technology series that I write every month.

The terror attacks in Mumbai have highlighted the need for better surveillance in our cities. Technology could play a major role here.

The terrorist strikes in Mumbai have exposed the vulnerability of our cities. It is essential that areas like hotels, train stations, bus stations, airports, markets and malls be provided with better surveillance to enable authorities to monitor and catch suspicious behaviour.



The Chattrapati Shivaji Terminus (CST) at Mumbai has over three million passengers passing through it every day. Most of these people, almost all of the time, perform normal activities like buying tickets, boarding and getting off trains, buying magazines, talking on mobile phones, and so on. Statistically, an abnormal event like the terrorist attack happens once in many millions of activities. But that does not lessen its impact or the need to spot it and nip it in the bud because, although rare, such an event can cause immeasurable damage to life and property.

Is it possible to add more ‘eyes’ to the city? Is it possible to use closed circuit television (CCTV) and other imaging technologies to catch terrorists before they strike? Is it possible to use machine vision technology to automatically detect abnormal activities in the images that have been captured and alert the police? Believe it or not, the answer to all these questions is ‘yes’, provided the right technology is in place.

An imaging and storage challenge

Each public place has its peculiarities. In some, it is easy to place CCTV equipment, especially indoors, where the cameras can be mounted on the walls. In others, like open markets and streets, it may be necessary to erect structures for placing the cameras.

Of course, this might need a large number of images. For instance, a place like CST has 18 platforms and many common areas. To cover each platform will require at least 30 cameras, and the common areas will require about 250 cameras. So, in all, CST will require about 800 cameras to cover it fully.

In open spaces like markets, tethered helium balloons, floating in the air, fitted with cameras can be used. One such balloon at a height of a few hundred metres fitted with multiple high-resolution cameras can cover the entire market very easily.



It is important to make sure that cameras can capture good quality images in different conditions like daylight, night light, cloudy or rainy situations, etc. The need is for imaging technology that has good resolutions under different imaging conditions, is inexpensive and is robust enough to be used outdoors and indoors.

Then there is the matter of storage. One hour of video from one camera can easily take up 30 GB (gigabyte) of storage space, so one would need to use image compression techniques to keep storage requirements at a minimum. However, the compression should not result in too much loss of clarity in the images, otherwise the very point of storing the images would be lost. What’s more, these image compression techniques need to be evaluated with CCTV images under different real life lighting and imaging conditions. Similarly, while a number of imaging technologies exist, it is still a challenge to determine the right solutions for camera placement and lighting.

The brain behind the eyes

Monitoring of CCTV images has traditionally been done by human observers, who often monitor multiple screens simultaneously. As the number of cameras increases, it will be necessary to increase the number of human observers as well. However, studies have shown that after the first 40 minutes, the alertness of the human observer falls drastically. Hence, automated solutions to recognise events that seem out of the ordinary, need to be developed.

Machine vision technology is maturing and today, a computer program can automatically detect stationary and non-stationary objects in an image. For example, people, luggage, trolleys, dustbins, kiosks and other objects in images can be automatically identified by a computer program. A computer program can even detect unattended luggage with reasonable accuracy—an important factor considering that bombs are often left in the form of luggage, transistors, etc. A computer can also detect when someone carries a suspicious-looking object. A human observer can be alerted to look at such images, verify that the system is correct, and notify security personnel on the ground.

It is possible to match the faces and gaits of people with those of known suspects, as well as identify suspicious behaviour like nervous or jerky movements by individuals, which can be indicative of a person who is about to carry out an attack.



It is essential that security experts work with the engineers writing such programs to define the scenarios of interest. The computer program needs to be given examples of normal events so that it can report anything that does not fit into this pattern.

Start-ups for security

But while security in public places needs to be stepped up, such security should not be disruptive. At CST, the authorities rejected a plan to frisk every person entering the premises—it was impractical to frisk over three million passengers every day. Security has to be effective but at the same time it should be unobtrusive as far as possible. Just placing guards at entrances or even frisking is not a solution in itself. We need to put technology to effective use and collect as much actionable data as possible to preempt terrorist strikes. ASSOCHAM expects that the security business in India will become a Rs 50,000 crore industry in the next four years. Much of this money will go into deploying technologies that can effectively fill the security gaps.

This represents an opportunity for technopreneurs to help make our lives safer. The first challenge is to reduce the cost of hardware. Today, a night vision camera costs Rs 10,000, while a camera for normal lighting costs Rs 5,000. These costs need to be brought down through innovative use of photo equipment and semiconductors. The next challenge is to develop better machine vision software. As it is not possible to monitor all images manually, machine vision algorithms for automatic surveillance need to be developed and deployed to aid the human observers. As in all matters these days, terrorism needs to be tackled by a blend of human effort and technology.

(Part of the monthly Folk Technology Series that I write for i.t. magazine)

Read: Fighting Terror Series

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Padma Awards, Why So Few In Sciences?


Padma Awards, namely, Padma Vibhushan, Padma Bhushan and Padma Shri are given by the government of India for exceptional and distinguished service in various fields including science, medicine, arts, social service, literature, sports, etc. In 2009, one hundred and thirty three Padma Awards were given out.


It is interesting to see the distribution of the disciplines. Fifty percent of the awardees get it for excelling in Arts and Literature. Science and Technology and Medicine together account for only 23%. This is a disheartening statistic. Disheartening because the brightest kids enter the science stream in school and then go on to do engineering and medicine. But as the distribution of awards shows, this group of bright youngsters make only a small impact later in their lives.



Where do the bright youngsters entering the IITs, AIIMS and other engineering and medical colleges disappear. Why do they have so little impact on the Indian society? Do they go on to work in areas of little relevance to the Indian society? Or is it a case that our society does not recognize their contributions?

Do visit this site to see even better statistics. Interestingly the 2009 trend holds through the history of the Padma Awards.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Innovation to Drive the Economy

Today India’s share of the world GDP is a minuscule 2%. The US accounts for over a quarter of the world GDP. Less than 200 years ago the situation was almost the reverse. In 1820, the US accounted for less than 2% of the world GDP and India had a 16% share and China 33%. In a previous post I asked for your reasons for this. Here I will offer what I think are the reasons.

In these two hundred years the drivers of the world economies have changed. In 1820 the economies were driven by agriculture and trade. Today the world economies are driven by knowledge - Knowledge about efficient ways to manufacture new goods, knowledge about efficient distribution of services, knowledge about effective ways to utilize existing knowledge.

Where did we here in India lose the plot in the last 200 years to drop down to where we are today? There is little doubt that the US economy rose because it lead the world in the creation, dissemination and utilization of knowledge. During the same period we didn’t devote any energy to the creation of new knowledge or intellectual property.

Innovation as driver of the knowledge economy

The World Bank Institute offers a formal definition of a knowledge economy as one that creates, disseminates, and uses knowledge to enhance its growth and development. For sometime now it has been claimed that India is at the forefront of this new knowledge driven world.



While it is true that we have the ingredients to become a leading knowledge economy, we are still not marshaling our resources properly to achieve this. We have one of the largest pool of technical manpower in the world with our universities producing over half a million engineering, mathematics and science graduates every year. We have a vibrant entrepreneurial and business community. But in spite of all this we are not a net producer of knowledge. Most of our companies including those in the software sector consume ideas generated outside of India. The business model of our companies does not include generation of new ideas. As a result we continue to be a net user of intellectual property.

Knowledge statistics

A good indicator of the amount of intellectual property being generated in a country is the number of patent filings. A patent is an exclusive right granted on an idea to its inventor. Such a right is granted to the inventor if her idea is found to be novel. The sole criterion for the grant of a patent is the newness of the idea being claimed.

In 2006-2007 the total number of patents filed in India was 28,882. In China during the same period more than 210,501 patent applications were filed. In the US, over 425,996 patents were filed during the same period.

What is even more alarming is that of the 28,882 patents filed in India, only 5,314 of these patents originated in India. The majority (19,768) originated abroad with 6,995 originating from the US.

In Asia Pacific, India has one of the oldest established Intellectual Property systems with the first patent laws being enacted in 1856. However, India has always been a net user of intellectual property rather than a creator. In recent times the government and other institutions have been recognizing the importance of intellectual property as a major source of economic and technological development. But as the numbers show, we haven’t been able to encourage the generation of new ideas in our country.

Companies for knowledge creation

While we lead the world economy in 1820 due to our leadership in agriculture, today we buy genetically modified seeds from the US to increase our crop yield per hectare. While we lead the world in trade, today we do not understand the mechanics of world trade enough to even influence the prices of agricultural commodities of which we are the lead producers. So we did not even build on our strengths.

A look at any of the leading companies of the world will make it clear that a game changing company like Microsoft, Google, IBM, and others, changes the world on the strength of valuable ideas. A company needs to generate ideas and then build products and services based on them. An informal survey of Indian companies showed that less than 5% of them have based their business on intellectual properly created by them. This is an alarming statistic. It shows that there is a dearth of ideas. Without a good idea no matter how well you do the marketing, a company is unlikely to become a world leader.

By definition the knowledge economy needs good ideas to drive it. With the large technical manpower available in our country, we now need to give the right impetus to get new and valuable ideas flowing.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Who Owns The Knowledge in India?

India has always been a net consumer of intellectual property. Now slowly Indian companies are beginning to give importance to the creation of knowledge and its utilization. I will dwell on two outstanding examples from the recent past: Nano and Chandrayaan. But before that let me give some numbers.

The Council for Industrial and Scientific Research (CSIR) is the top producer of Intellectual Property in India. Over the past 40 years CSIR has filed over 3000 patents. CSIR employs about 10,000 scientists across 45 labs in India. Many of them hold PhD degrees from the top educational institutions in India.

Top Indian Patent Filing Companies/Organizations, 1968-2004

ApplicantNo of Patents
CSIR3083
HLL946
Hoechst766
Siemens685
Westinghouse Electric Corp477
Union Carbide365
Proctor & Gamble337
Riter AG Maschif336
Lucas Ind Plc326
ICI Plc308


Every year till 2005 CSIR filed the maximum number of patent applications in the Indian Patent office. However, in 2006 that changed. Microsoft emerged out of nowhere to become the top applicant of Indian patents in 2006.

Top ten Indian patent applicants in 2006

ApplicantNo of Patents
Microsoft Corp584
CSIR476
Johnson & Johnson271
Qualcomm Inc249
Honda Motor Co Ltd237
Samsung Electronics216
Konink Philips Electric194
Thomson Licensing SA157
Hindustan Lever Ltd146
Motorola Inc145


In 2006 there were 28,882 patents filed in India. Of these only 5,314 patents originated in India. The majority (19,768) originated abroad with 6,955 patent applications originating in the US.

Patent Filings in India by Country of Origin in 2006


While it is great that CSIR owns a large number of Indian patents, we must realize that they do not go and commercialize their ideas. So in effect these patents largely remain ideas in their scientists' head.

Contrast this with Tata Motors. In the process of making Nano, Tata Motors filed just 34 patents. This is a minuscule number by any standards. But can you imagine the immense value this one car is bringing to Tata Motors and to India? Tata used not only its own 34 patented components but also existing patented components from other car companies to put together an innovative car in ways thought impossible before.

Chandrayaan was a grand success. Again in its creation a lot of intellectual property was created by the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) scientists. I am not sure ISRO chose to patent these ideas. However, it is clear that lots of new ideas were generated in achieving the moon mission.

The World Bank Institute offers a formal definition of a knowledge economy as one that creates, disseminates, and uses knowledge to enhance its growth and development. For sometime now it has been claimed that India is at the forefront of this new knowledge driven world. But the truth is we are still not there.

We have to create a culture of innovation. To do that we have to encourage innovation. We have to learn how to identify innovation and we have to learn how to reward it. We have been flaunting the low cost of our moon mission. But the truth is that has been achieved by underpaying the scientists who made the mission possible. Very few of the components used in the mission were bought off the shelf. Most of them were unique and innovative components that the ISRO scientists created. So in effect the intellectual property cost of the mission was kept artificially low by underpaying for the innovations.

While it is true that we have the ingredients to become a leading knowledge economy, we are still not marshaling our resources properly to achieve this. We have one of the largest pool of technical manpower in the world with our universities producing over half a million engineering, mathematics and science graduates every year. We have a vibrant entrepreneurial and business community. We have a large Indian Diaspora working in high technology in the US and other western nations. But in spite of all this we continue to be a net user of intellectual property. We need to change that quickly.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Who Owns the Knowledge In This World?

In the last post many readers gave their opinions on why there has been a shift in economic power from Asia in 1800's to USA in recent years. The US accounts for over 25% of the world GDP. Today India’s share of the world GDP is a minuscule 2%. Less than 200 years ago the situation was almost the reverse. The US accounted for less than 2% of the world GDP and India had a 16% share and China 33%, in 1820. In this post I will dwell on how invention and the creation of new knowledge has facilitated the rise of US.

Today the world is driven by knowledge - its creation, dissemination, and utilization to enhance growth and development. Countries that are able to produce knowledge and consume it effectively have been at the forefront in this century.

A good indicator of the amount of knowledge or intellectual property being generated in a country is the number of patent filings. A patent is an exclusive right granted on an idea to its inventor. Such a right is granted to the inventor if her idea is found to be novel. The sole criterion for the grant of a patent is the newness of the idea being claimed.

Today there are close to 6.3 million patents in force. Of these the majority of the patents are owned by applicants from USA, Japan and other European nations. Patents normally have a lifetime of 20 years.

Patents in Force by Country of Origin in 2006


In 2006-2007 the total number of patents filed in India was 28,882. In China during the same period more than 573,000 patent applications were filed. In the US, over 1,760,000 patents were filed during the same period. The total patent filings all over the world were 1,760,000. Effectively 1/4th of all patents filed were in the US.

Patent Filings in 2006 by Country of Filing


What is alarming for India is that of the 28,882 patents filed in India, only 5,314 of these patents originated in India. The majority (19,768) originated abroad with 6,955 patent applications originating in the US. Infact applicants from US and Japan account for over half the patents filed across the world. These countries and their institutions are major exporters of knowledge.

Patent Filings in 2006 by Country of Origin


Countries like US, Japan, Germany, France, have been net exporters of knowledge. They have also been effective in monetizing this knowledge that they create. The products and services based on their inventions allows their companies to stay ahead. However, India has always been a net user of intellectual property rather than a creator.

In recent times governments have been recognizing the importance of intellectual property as a major source of economic and technological development. Some countries like China have made great strides in turning themselves into net creators of knowledge. Others like India are still lagging behind.

Monday, January 05, 2009

Technology As A Driver of Modern Civilization

The Gross Domestic Product of a country is a measure of its prosperity in terms of the goods and services produced by it. In 2007 the world GDP was estimated at $ 54.62 Trillion. The US contributed over 25% to the world GDP in 2007. The emerging economies of India and China contributed 2% and 6% respectively.

But what is interesting is that in 1820 China accounted for 33% and India for 16% of the world economy. USA's contribution then was a minuscule 2%.

World GDP Break Up in 1820



World GDP Break Up in 2007



If you look at the European nations their GDP has remained almost constant as a share of the world GDP. Similarly others have remained fairly constant with the exception of Japan.

What contributed to the rise of USA and the fall of India and China. What has resulted in this shift of economic power from Asia to the USA in these 200 years?

In 1820s the world economy was mostly agrarian. Indian and Chinese economies then were mostly driven by farming.

In 2008 the world economy is powered by technology. The US is at the forefront of a lot of the technological progress made by humankind.

What do you think are the reasons for this major change from 1820 to today?